Conceptual Background

Access to basic education lies at the heart of development. Lack of education is both a part of the definition of poverty and a means for its diminution. Sustained access is critical to long term improvements in productivity, the reduction of inter-generational cycles of poverty, demographic transition, preventive health care, the empowerment of women, and reductions in inequality.

The key problem CREATE addresses is how to increase meaningful access for those between the ages of 5 to 15 years. The numbers are large. Even where primary gross enrolment rates exceed 100%, national data indicates that attendance may be below 70%, completion rates may fall below 50%, and fewer than 20% may attend lower secondary. Achievement data often show a minority acquiring basic learning skills by grade 5. The EFA Global Monitoring Reports (UNESCO 2002-2004), and many other recent Country level EFA reviews by governments and NGOs indicate the scale of the challenge.

Initial enrolment and progression are a result of the interaction of both the supply of and demand for educational services. Meaningful Access is much more than a supply side problem that can be resolved if enough school places are provided. Supply constraints are important where children are denied opportunities to enrol for lack of school places, and where the schools that do exist are unsuited in quality or operation for the populations they are intended to serve. Critical supply side issues include school location, teacher deployment and training, availability of learning materials, and safety especially for girls. However resolving supply side issues will always be insufficient to achieve Education for All.

There is increasing evidence that demand may soften as enrolment rates rise, especially if rapid expansion degrades quality. Patterns of demand shape entry, progression, completion and transition to lower secondary. As enrolment rates increase perceptions of the relevance and effectiveness of schooling and of the benefits of participation may change and have a negative impact on retention and completion. The problems of capturing and retaining the last 20%, and increasing promotion, completion and transition to lower secondary towards near universal levels are inextricably linked to decisions to participate. These are partly related to the direct costs of schooling but are also dependent on many other factors. Thus, how demand has been changing, and how supply interacts with demand, are central concerns for CREATE.

Exclusion from basic education is a process culminating in an event with multiple causalities. We use the term 'zones of exclusion' to describe the various spaces where children are included, excluded, or are at risk. Initial access has little meaning unless it results in (i) regular attendance (ii) progression (iii) meaningful learning and (iv) appropriate access to post-primary education. Children falling into these zones of exclusion are the subject of our research, especially the disadvantaged groups (e.g. girls, HIV/AIDS orphans, displaced people, ethnic minorities).

CREATE identifies six main zones of exclusion. The Figure below presents a cross sectional model by grade of participation which locates those who are losing or have lost access to conventional education systems. It illustrates how typically enrolments decline steeply through the primary grades in low enrolment countries, and how those attending irregularly and achieving poorly fall into “at risk” zones. In this hypothetical model more than half of all children leave before completing primary school, and about half of the primary completers are selected into lower secondary school where attrition continues.

Figure 1 Access and Zones of Exclusion from Primary and Secondary Schooling

Zone 1 contains those denied any access. Expansion of conventional schooling can enrol a proportion of these children, but is unlikely to embrace all by 2015. More research is needed of the circumstances that surround those without access to orthodox schooling, for example, nomadic groups (Aikman and el Haj, 2005); those in low population density areas (Little, 2006); and those in extreme poverty (Kabeer et al., 2003), to establish how their basic education needs might best be met. This additional research could identify whether different modes of service delivery offer promise (Chowdury et al, 2003), and whether opportunities to join mainstream schooling will be sufficient to extend access to all. It is likely that the best solution for most of those currently excluded from grade 1 is extending the reach of the existing formal system. Analysis is needed of the gaps in provision (both rural and urban) and of feasible, pro-poor and affordable strategies. These should recognise the growing attention being given to pre-school.

Zone 2 includes the great majority of children who are excluded after initial entry. Typically, drop out is greatest in the early grades, with a substantial subsequent push-out at the transition to secondary school. Pre-cursors to drop out include repetition, low achievement, previous temporary withdrawals, low attendance, late enrolment, poor teaching, degraded facilities, very large classes, household poverty, child labour and poor health and nutrition (Boyle et al., 2002; Canagarajah and Nielsen, 1999; Fentiman, Hall and Bundy, 1999; Nokes et al, 1998). Those dropping out usually become permanently excluded with no pathway back to re-enter. The zone includes disproportionate numbers of girls, HIV/AIDS orphans, and others in vulnerable circumstances (Pridmore et al, 2005). It may be influenced by child labour practices (Ravallion and Wodon, 1999).

Zone 3 includes those in school but at risk of dropping out. These children might be low-attenders, repeaters and low-achievers. Children who remain formally enrolled in school may be silently excluded if their attendance is sporadic, their achievement so low that they cannot follow the curriculum, or if they are discriminated against for socio-cultural reasons. Nutritional deficiencies and sickness can compound these problems (Partnership for Child Development, 1998). Too little is known of how the range of influential factors is changing as EFA evolves, how they result in decisions to enrol and attend at different grade/age levels, and how they have an impact on different key disadvantaged groups.

Zone 4 contains those excluded from lower secondary school as a result of failing to be selected, being unable to afford costs, or dropping out before successful completion of primary. This exclusion is important for EFA since transition rates into secondary affect demand for primary schooling, primary teacher supply depends on secondary graduates, and gender equity at the secondary level is an MDG. Access to secondary schooling promotes the social mobility needed to give poor households more access to higher income employment.

Zone 5 includes those children who have entered lower secondary school but who fail to progress to the end of the cycle. In most countries lower secondary is now considered part of basic education. Many who fail to complete the cycle are likely to be below the legal working-age if they are in the appropriate grade for their age. The reasons for drop out include poor performance, affordability, and loss of interest. Demand to remain in school may weaken as a result of high opportunity costs where work is available.

Zone 6 contains lower secondary children at risk of drop out. As with Zone 3 some will be silently excluded though enrolled and at risk as a result of poor attendance and low achievement. Costs and affordability are also likely to be significant.

An additional Zone of Exclusion - Zone 0 - refers to pre school participation. This is very poorly detailed though it is clear that in low enrolment countries large majorities experience little or no access to organised pre-school, and those that do are often enrolled in high cost private facilities. This almost certainly disadvantages this population in relation to those that do attend preschool and achieve a head start in basic learning. Several countries are developing policy to extend the reach of pre-schooling and provide public finance to support its development (e.g. Ghana and South Africa).

In summary the CREATE Zones are:

This way of conceptualisation of access draws attention to several important general issues.

First, it is generally the case that those who are not enrolled and who will never enrol (Zone 1) are the minority of those out of school, often by a factor of five or more. The exceptions may be in fragile states and in remote areas where conventional schools are unable to operate. By far the largest numbers of school age children who are out of school have enrolled at some time but have failed to persist (Zone 2 and Zone 4). Moreover it is likely that most who are unenrolled are in households where some siblings have enrolled and may still be enrolled. The empirical test of this has to be undertaken using household survey and other data from different locations. However the general patterns are clear.

Second, children in Zone 3 and Zone 6 are judged to be at risk of drop out. The easiest way of identifying such children is likely to be through patterns of attendance and of low achievement. The former is readily observable. Thresholds can be identified below which meaningful access is compromised if not entirely lost. An arbitrary threshold could be 90% attendance throughout the school year. Less than this signifies substantial loss of time on task and is likely to lead to low achievement and failure to be promoted. The latter is more complex in the absence of criterion referenced performance data. Low achievement in one school may be judged high in another. Drop out may be more influenced by relative rather than absolute levels of performance since it is partly socially-determined. Those who drop out are not always low achievers. Nevertheless, low achievement leading to slow progression, failure on promotion tests and repetition does seem likely to be exclusionary. The “silent exclusion” of children attending but learning little is a useful concept but it can only be judged in context on the basis of the data available. Children who are at risk of drop out at levels that almost guarantee that they will not complete primary school successfully, should be included in those whose access is compromised. Their access is unlikely to be very meaningful if they learn little and then leave.

Third, the transition from primary to lower secondary is a significant point of exclusion for large numbers where secondary school places are a small fraction of the number of primary school leavers. Selection ratios in parts of Sub-Saharan Africa have exceeded 5:1. In many countries with EFA programmes secondary schooling has not expanded as fast as primary with the result that transition rates may have fallen. Access to lower secondary is part of EFA both because basic education often includes these grades, and because the gender equity targets explicitly include secondary schools. The issues in Zones 4, 5 and 6 have similarities with Zones 2 and 3 but also have different characteristics. These include formal selection (many countries have a selective primary school leaving examination) to allocate places in secondary schools competitively, typically much higher costs to households of attendance than at primary, and the inclusion of children of labour market age in school enrolment. Access in these zones is more likely to be subject to demand side constraints arising from opportunity costs, loss of interest in schooling, early marriage, pregnancy etc. than at primary.

Fourth, the model of Zones of Exclusion by grade has to be accompanied by an understanding of progression through grades linked to age and repetition patterns. The figure below shows how enrolment varies in relation to age in low enrolment countries. This generic model is based on patterns that can be seen in household survey data and EMIS.

Figure 2 Access and age patterns

In this illustration about 40% of six year olds are not enrolled. The proportion who remain out of school falls to about 10% by the age of eleven. Above this age it is likely that those who are out of school will remain excluded. Primary enrolment rates by age group increase to age eleven and then start to fall as a result of early drop out in lower and middle grades before completion. The chart distinguishes between those who are securely enrolled (i.e. unlikely to drop out before completion) and those who are “at risk” (in Zone 3 of the CREATE exclusion model). From age 12 onwards increasing numbers complete the primary school cycle and either leave formal education or continue into secondary schools. In this representation those completing primary schooling by age 15 are a smaller number than those dropping out before completion. This is typical of low enrolment countries.

Grade progression and attrition have to be understood in relation to patterns of participation by age. Many children do not enter grade 1 at the nominal age of entitlement. Those who subsequently repeat grades, or miss years of schooling, become overage. In some systems more than 25% of children are overage. The Figure below shows how age can vary within grades using patterns that can be seen in enrolment data. Here the nominal entry age into primary school grade 1 is five years and the median age of grade 1 students is seven years, reflecting delayed entry (or repetition). A small number of pupils are enrolled at age 4. This can happen where parents find it convenient to enrol under-age siblings, and where schools permit early attendance. Children in grade 1 in this example vary in age between 4 and 11 years old. The patterns persist in higher grades so that, e.g. in grade 3 the age range is 7-13 years, and in grade 6, 10-18 years. Often higher grades have larger age ranges (since there are more chances to become over age the longer children persist in the system). They may also have fewer girls (not shown) if girls tend to leave school at younger ages than boys.

Figure 3 Enrolments by age and grade

Age-grade enrolment patterns are important. Over-age entry and progression delays primary school completion to ages where boys and girls may be subject to growing pressures to contribute to household income and to enter into marriage. They can result in grade groups with wide age ranges raising questions about appropriate pedagogy and cognitive strategies in the curriculum. And there may be social and behavioural consequences that stem from wide age (and presumably capability) grouping that results from repetition.

Serial repetition gradually increases the distance between the actual age of learners and their nominal age of their grade group. Ultimately this becomes a curriculum issue. If significant numbers are asked to repeat a grade then de facto what is being taught is inaccessible to those who are learning under the conditions that exists in particular schools. Changes in pedagogy and content are needed to overcome the learning problems. If children are allowed to progress from grade to grade without mastering most of the outcomes attributed to each grade they will become more and more out of touch with the capabilities needed to complete the grade successfully. Enhanced access therefore cannot be conceptualised without insight into the dynamics of classrooms and curricula, and their inter-relationships with achievement and progression.

Reconceptualising access and equity issues is needed to recognise that:

• Different participation patterns shape starting points for universalising access and different pathways towards EFA
• Those excluded from schooling have different characteristics and fall into different zones of exclusion
• The majority who are not enrolled have attended but have dropped out
• Many more are enrolled but not attending regularly
• Amongst those enrolled and attending many may be learning little and are silently excluded
• EFA and universalising access to primary schooling cannot be seen in isolation from investment at secondary level, not least for reasons concerned with teacher supply and the impact of falling transition rates from primary to secondary on completion rates
• EFA and achieving the MDGs is both a supply side and demand side problem; as supply is enhanced demand may soften, especially amongst older children
• Gendered exclusion is related to structural factors within education systems, family choices, and socio cultural practices all of which are susceptible to change and that differential entry ages and rates of drop out explain important proportions of the variations that can be observed
• Access, progression and transition to higher levels are strongly related to household income suggesting that direct and indirect costs remain very significant causes of exclusion
• Sustaining expanded access will require viable financial frameworks for resource allocation which recognise demographic, economic, and political realities and that in low enrolment countries these will require continuing external assistance.

Macro-level political, social, cultural and institutional conditions exist alongside individual and household decision making. Together they frame the interaction of educational supply and demand within each of the zones of exclusion. These macro factors are widely overlooked in relation to EFA policy and planning. They include, inter alia, livelihood conditions; political climates, institutional arrangements, and cultural and religious affiliations. Almost every EFA/MDG report calls for enhanced political leadership and commitment to the goals of EFA/MDG. However, we know little about the conditions under which political elites see it to be in their interests to support EFA and go beyond the rhetoric of expanding basic education to act to improve access for the poor and disadvantaged.